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Range Takeaway: A consensus is forming that May's inflation spike is a one-off supply shock the Fed can look past. Market expectations for rate hikes eased as nearly all of May’s price surge was driven by energy, while core CPI at 2.9% was below estimates. But the bigger question is whether demand is strong enough to keep inflation elevated on its own. GDP is tracking above 3%, AI capex commitments top $800 billion for 2026, and job growth is at its best three-month pace since March 2024. The energy spike may fade. Whether demand-driven inflation takes its place is what the Fed will be debating next week.

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history this week. It raised $75B at a $1.77T valuation and closed its first day at a $2.1T market cap, trading 19% above the $135 offer price.

The debut was a live test of risk appetite. With stocks near all-time highs, how much would investors pay up for the most anticipated listing in decades?

History gives us a yardstick. Tech IPOs have averaged a 31% first-day gain since 1980. During the dot-com peak, the average hit 71%. In the 2020 and 2021 frenzy, first-day jumps averaged 42% and 32%. Last year's average was 29%.

Against that backdrop, a 19% pop is almost subdued. A 50%+ debut would have echoed the excesses of the dot-com era. Instead, we got something resembling discipline... with an asterisk: investors still paid up to a $2 trillion valuation for a business trading north of 100 times trailing revenue.

But that rich valuation may say less about the market than about the man behind it. Tesla has shown for years that Musk-affiliated stocks can trade on devotion as much as fundamentals. Some portion of that price tag is Elon, not animal spirits.

The cleaner tests come later this year. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed, and neither brings a fan base. Watch those debuts for the truer read.

The second-quarter estimated tax deadline is Monday, June 15 — and it's the one that quietly trips people up, because the "quarter" it covers is only two months (April–May).

Step 1: Know if you owe. If you make money that isn't fully taxed through a regular paycheck, you may need to make quarterly tax payments. The usual triggers for our members: RSUs and large one-time bonuses (when withheld at a flat 22%, but you're likely taxed at 32–37%), big capital gains, K-1 or partnership income, or self-employment.

Step 2: Calculate using safe harbor. The IRS offers a "safe harbor" that protects you from underpayment penalties as long as you pay a minimum amount during the year, even if you ultimately owe more when you file your return.

The simplest way to reach safe harbor: take your total 2025 tax liability and multiply by 1.1. What's left is what you’ll need to pay the IRS separately — split into four equal quarterly payments. By June 15, two of the four should be made (Q1 and Q2). If you haven't paid yet this year, you can pay both at once.

Step 3: Pay in minutes. Go to IRS Direct Pay — select "Estimated Tax," Form 1040-ES, tax year 2026 — or EFTPS for recurring payments. 

P.S. Don't forget your state: most use the same Monday deadline (a few, like California, run different schedules). Find your state's payment portal via the Federation of Tax Administrators directory.

Your Range planner meetings are now part of Rai's memory. You can ask Rai to recap what you discussed with your advisory team, surface the action items you agreed on, and pick up follow-ups without digging through notes or your inbox.

"Do I need to make a Q2 estimated tax payment by June 15?"

This mirrors what members asked Rai all week, and it’s a great place to start if you’re unsure of whether you need to make quarterly payments. Rai reviews your income sources, year-to-date withholding, and your prior year’s tax liability to calculate your safe-harbor number and tell you whether you should make a payment.*

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