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Range Takeaway: A massive disconnect remains between how Americans feel and how they spend. While consumer sentiment continues to languish, the latest Redbook data shows retail sales up a robust 7.8% in early May, well above pre-pandemic norms. Why the gap? Consumers see $4.50 gas on every street corner, a stark reminder of rising inflation. But in aggregate, consumer balance sheets remain healthy. Jobless claims are near multi-decade lows, while household net worth is at record levels. Consumers might hate the prices, but they still have the capital to pay them.

This earnings season has been exceptional. With Q1 nearly in the books, S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow nearly 30% YoY, more than double the pace of Q4 and the strongest growth rate since 2021. Ten of eleven sub-sectors are growing earnings, and every single one has beaten expectations.

But one sector is in hyperdrive. Semiconductors are now the largest sub-sector in the S&P 500, making up 16% of the index, up from just 6% before ChatGPT launched. Bolstered by massive AI investment from hyperscalers, semis have grown earnings more than 120% YoY in Q1, contributing more than half of the market's total earnings growth.

The obvious question is... is this pace sustainable?

Consensus would say no. Analysts expect EPS growth for the sector to decelerate from 119% this year to 37% in 2027, consistent with hyperscaler capex growth expected to slow from 100% to roughly 15% over the same window.

The good news? Extraordinary earnings aren't being valued at extraordinary multiples. Semis are trading below their 5-year average valuation, meaning investors are already discounting some level of cooling. We also know that Wall Street has consistently underestimated the explosive demand we're seeing for AI infrastructure. Even if consensus has finally gotten it right for 2027, nearly 40% projected earnings growth is nothing to scoff at from the largest corner of the market.

The semis engine doesn't need to stay at full throttle to drive the market higher. It just needs to keep running.

U.S. families can start opening Trump Accounts for their children starting this summer.

Think of them as traditional IRAs without the earned income requirement — meaning you can start funding the account with after-tax dollars and accruing tax-deferred growth starting at birth. Contributions are capped at $5,000/year (parents, grandparents, friends, even employers can chip in up to $2,500).

Funds become accessible to the child at age 18, with earnings taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal. Qualified uses include education, a first-home purchase, starting a business, or retirement. Withdrawals taken before age 59½ for non-qualified purposes may incur a 10% penalty.

A bonus for children born between 2025 and 2028: They qualify for a $1,000 government seed contribution — but parents have to opt in (head to trumpaccounts.gov now to sign up for enrollment alerts). Enrollment opens July 5, 2026.

Worth noting: Contributions may count as taxable gifts requiring Form 709, and investments are limited to low-cost index funds. 

You can now upload your financial documents to Rai chat.

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The Mega Backdoor Roth can shelter tens of thousands of extra dollars in Roth retirement savings each year — if your employer plan allows it and you size the contribution right. Rai can run the numbers for you.*

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Rai checks whether this strategy would work for you, and details how it could fit into your financial plan, in plain English.

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